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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd